ji·had·ica

The End of an Era

Like most others, I knew this day would come but I still can’t believe it’s here.  And to come at such a momentous time in Middle Eastern history, with the Arab Spring and the end of our combat presence in Iraq.

I’ve been pleasantly surprised that the stock thinking about the implications of Bin Laden’s demise has given way to careful analysis when finally faced with the fact.  Al-Qaeda will certainly go on and may catch its breath with the likes of Zawahiri and Awlaki, but it is Bin Laden who was the driving force of the organization and much has died with him.  Like al-Qaeda in Iraq, al-Qaeda Central will continue zombie-like to wreak havoc but it will never be the same.  This truly is the end of an era and more politically savvy Islamists will now take center stage.

There are a legion of big questions about the implications of all of this–for al-Qaeda, the US and its allies, the Middle East, and for the Muslim world.  I took my own stab at answering some at 1:30 this morning after the news broke, which Foreign Policy kindly published with the wonderful title of “William McCants: A Gaping Hole.”

We’re all clumsily feeling our way through this, and here are some of those who have helped me today:

  • Marc Lynch’s Bin Ladin’s Quiet End explained how al-Qaeda made itself irrelevant and the Muslim Brotherhood capitalized
  • Jason Burke’s What Now for al-Qaida ran through some of the implications of UBL’s death for AQ Central
  • Aaron Zelin did yeoman’s work translating the reactions of jihadis online in real time
  • Chris Anzalone put together a valuable collection of jihadi uses of Bin Laden’s visage
  • Clint Watts reminded us of his January poll on the implications of Bin Laden’s death
  • Leah Farrall has some inside-baseball analysis of the transition scenarios for AQ leadership
  • Joshua Foust Sekundar predicts that the impact on Taliban operations in Afghanistan will be nil
  • Daveed Gartenstein-Ross cautions us that al-Qaeda is still very much alive
  • Andrew Exum reminds us of those who have sacrificed along the away

I’m sure there are others I’m forgetting (tweet them or write), and there are still some I’m waiting to hear from (come on Weisburd and Johnsen).  No doubt the analysis will get more sober as the weeks pass, and I reserve the right to completely change my mind.  It is hard to get things right when there is so little to go on and so much emotion involved.

Finally, my hats off to the journalistic community. I don’t know how you put together such cogent, well-sourced pieces in such a short period of time.

Stay tuned tomorrow.  We’ll be posting a very insightful piece by Joas Wagemakers on the dilemmas faced by the jihadis in Syria, whose revolution is only briefly eclipsed.

Homecoming

Two years, an underwear bomber, an Arab Spring, a new war, and many memos later, I’ve returned to the private sector and blogging.  At the Department of Defense I tried to find ways to persuade academics to write about terrorism.  At the Department of State, I tried to find ways to persuade angry youth not to give academics something to write about.

In all of that, I benefited greatly from the work here and around the blogosphere.  The proliferation of sites that dispassionately study Islamist militancy has been heartening, if not the increase of the subject’s importance.  Ibn Siqilli’s and Aaron’s blogs are particularly valuable new resources and Clint’s is a refreshing change of pace.  As for my old standbys, they have only gotten better (I’m looking at you Aaron, Leah, Marc, and Ex).  Now if I can figure out this twitter thingamajigger, I can hang out with the cool kids again.

As for the future of Jihadica, Thomas has blessedly agreed to stay on as co-editor and we will continue to be a group blog.  He and I are talking about some interesting changes to the site’s design and content, so stay tuned.

As for my blogging, most of my energy will be reserved for the Center for Strategic Studies at CNA, my new home, but I’ll write when I can.  It’s hard to be quiet when there’s so much happening in Zawahiri’s hometown.

Return Of The Jihadica

No sooner had I signed off than I got an email from a friend whose scholarship I deeply respect volunteering to take over Jihadica with the help of his equally brilliant cohorts (Tim unwittingly prophesied it in his kind send off).  It’s not a done deal but I wanted to post something before all of Jihadica’s readers abandoned ship.  Stay tuned over the weekend.  If this works out, you’re going to love what’s coming.  If not, I’ll delete this message and go back to the farewell post.

As for me, I’m officially exiting the building.

Farewell For Now

I am starting a new job on Friday and will no longer be able to blog.  I’ve been thrilled by the interest the site has generated and by the dispassionate, thoughtful analysis of its readers, who range across the ideological spectrum.  I hope the positive response to this site in the blogosphere and media will encourage others with the requisite language and cultural expertise to undertake similar endeavors.  Please drop me a line if you do.

I will keep the site online so that others can benefit from the primary source material I’ve gathered.  And you can still reach me through the contact page.

Thank you for reading and responding.

Bin Laden And Zawahiri Not Sharing Talking Points

It’s interesting to compare Bin Laden’s new statement on Gaza with Zawahiri’s of last week.  Of course the overarching message–jihad now!–is the same.  But unlike Zawahiri, Bin Laden doesn’t mock Obama, he doesn’t echo Zawahiri’s call for demonstrations in Egypt (Bin Laden says demonstrations are useless), and he takes a slightly more conciliatory view of democracy (electing a president, yes; man-made legislation, no).  Bin Laden is also more explicit about how to raise money to finance the jihad (hit up rich businessmen).

Bin Laden does echo Zawahiri in one important respect.  Zawahiri said that the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq is one of the “good omens” (basha’ir) of AQ coming to fight in the Palestinian Territories.  Bin Laden ends his message by saying that in this year there will be “omens” (tabashir, from the same Arabic root as basha’ir) of the receding of the Zionist-Crusader campaign.  Make of it what you will.

Here’s a summary:

  • Jihad is the only way to solve the problem in Palestine.  Appealing to the Security Council or local rulers won’t solve it.  The former want to hurt Muslims and the latter are agents of the West.
  • The leaders of Islamic movements who won’t call for a jihad in Palestine unless their rulers approve it are ducking their responsibility.  Jihad today is an individual duty, not dependent on the permission of rulers.
  • Engaging in demonstrations without weapons is useless.
  • You can win against the Zionist-Crusader alliance if you will just fight.  Look at what the mujahids did in Afghanistan against the Soviets.  Look at what the mujahids have done to the U.S., which is now bleeding human and financial resources.  It is in the midst of a financial crisis; its enemies don’t fear it and its friends don’t respect it.
  • Israel had to launch an attack on Gaza to protect itself by replacing Hamas with the Palestinian Authority.  It has done so now because the power of its chief sponsor, the U.S., is rapidly waning and because its major backers, Bush and the neoconservatives, are about to leave office.
  • Biden, Greenspan, and various world leaders have said the global economic system is on the verge of collapse.  The American intelligence community reports that U.S. influence will wane even more in the coming years.
  • Americans can’t continue to fight Muslims for several more decades.  Most Americans are displeased with what Bush has done.  He has bequeathed two wars to his successor, who can’t win them no matter what he does.  If he withdraws, it’s a military defeat.  If he continues, it deepens the economic crisis.
  • The open fronts of jihad “in the region” are Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Waziristan, North Africa, and Somalia.
  • Muslims should support the jihad financially.  One wealthy businessman can pay for all the expenses of jihad on the open fronts.  I know many Muslim businessmen want to support the jihad financially, but they are worried about being discovered by America and its agents in the region.  This is not an excuse.
  • You cannot secure your rights by voting; they can only be secured through force.  Western countries themselves took their rights by force.  Look at the French Revolution.  Look at the American Revolution.
  • There can be no ballot boxes in our countries while tyrants rule them.
  • Muslims believe in electing presidents and offering him council.  But we do not believe in electing legilatures that create man-made laws.
  • We are in solidarity with you since we are fighting the same enemy.
  • “God wills that this year will reveal the signs of dawn and the omens of deliverance through the receding of the Zionist-Crusader reach.”

Q&A On Gaza

Asad al-Jihad2, who some claim is senior AQ member Hukayma, is taking questions on Gaza.  The Q&A session, modeled on that of Zawahiri, is open for four days of questions; AJ2 will give his answers soon after.  Individuals are allowed to ask five question and news orgs can ask ten.

One has to be careful not to read too much into these questions since some were probably posted by intel orgs.  But the concerns raised jive with everything else I’ve seen on the forums: what’s our stance on Hamas, who are the authentic Jihadi groups and why aren’t they doing more, and what do we do about Egypt and the Gulf countries?

I don’t have time to summarize them all, but one question directed to Asad al-Jihad2 struck me: “What is your view regarding the recent disclosure that Gaza is being annexed to Egypt and the West Bank is being annexed to Jordan?”

No Jihadi Claim Of Rocket Attacks

There’s been no claim on the forums today for the rockets fired from southern Lebanon into Israel but everyone believes it’s a Salafi-Jihadi group.  Some have opined that it’s Fatah al-Islam, but they’re as clueless as the rest of us.  Look here and here for some clues as to what’s going on.

Update: From MEMRI.

New Zawahiri Statement: Obama Is Killing Muslims In Gaza

An audio statement by Zawahiri was just posted to the forums.  Here’s a summary:

  • Bin Laden swore he would keep fighting until Palestine and Muslim lands are free of foreign occupiers.
  • The Israeli attacks are Obama’s “gift” to the Palestinians before he takes office.  President Mubarak of Egypt is an accomplice in this slaughter since he has closed Egypt’s border with Gaza.
  • To the Muslims and mujahids in Gaza and Palestine: Al-Qaeda is with you.  We are attacking the American-Zionist Crusade wherever we can and we are quickly moving toward you.  The American withdrawal from Iraq heralds our approach toward you.
  • To the Muslims in Egypt: Strike and protest to force Mubarak to end the blockade.
  • To the Bedouins in Sinai: Help break the blockade.
  • To the Muslims of the world: American propaganda portrayed Obama as your savior but here he is “killing” Muslims in Gaza.  Demonstrating against these atrocities is not enough; you must engage in jihad.  Strike the American-Zionist Crusade everywhere.

Document (Arabic): 1-6-09-shamikh-zawahiri-on-gaza

Maqdisi Blasts Hamas

Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, the leading Jihadi scholar in Jordan (and worldwide for that matter), has issued a statement on his website regarding Gaza.  In short: Hamas has let down the Muslim community and needs to step out of the way and allow the Jihadis there and abroad to take over the fight against Israel.  Maqdisi is particularly enraged by Hamas’ recent crackdown on the Army of Islam.  Here’s a summary of the highlights:

  • If not for tyrranical rulers and their armies, Muslims would be flocking across their countries’ borders to Gaza now on a jihad.
  • We’re not surprised by the failure of our feckless rulers.  We’re surprised by the leaders of Hamas, who spurn the Taliban, Jihadi clerics, and true monotheists [eg Army of Islam] while praising the Shia and its leaders [eg Hezbollah and Iran] and even secular governments that plot against Islam.
  • Some might say this is the time for solidarity and not reproaching others.  We say that there is no time like the present.  Neglecting to speak out is one of the main reasons the enemies have been ascendant.
  • Hamas is misleading Muslims with its glittering slogans, which blind people to their wayward goals and strategies, leading them down the path of criminals.
  • Hamas is selling out Islam and cozying up to tyrants.
  • Hamas started the bloodshed in Gaza several weeks ago when it killed members of the Army of Islam organization.  In this they brought joy to the Jews.
  • We support those who fight for pure monotheism, not democracy or nationalism.  We won’t stand in the way of those who want to fight for these things, but we won’t support them and we don’t want others to follow them.
  • Hamas needs to abandon democracy and return to pure monotheism.  It needs to stop hindering those who would fight under monotheism’s banner.

Document (Arabic): 12-29-08-tawhed-maqdisi-statement-on-hamas

Ansar Network Hacking Jewish Websites In Response To Israel Attack

Several blogs and news orgs (start here) have noted that Jewish websites are being hacked and replaced with Jihadi propaganda in response to Israel’s attack on Hamas.  Until yesterday, I had not seen anyone on the forums claim the attacks.  Now the Ansar al-Mujahideen Network has posted a statement on the Faloja forum claiming several of them.  There’s not much to dissect in the statement, but it does give a list of sites the group has hacked (click pdf below).

Here’s a screen shot of one of the hacked sites:

Document (English): 1-4-09-faloja-list-of-hacked-jewish-sites

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